Germany is giving up on Nuclear Power, again.

As the country that seems most politically sensitive to “Environmental” issues the German government Environment Minister Norbert Röttgen announced the details of a phase out of nuclear generation by 2021 unless the plans for renewable generation do not happen in which case the existing nuclear plants will run on another year (or so!) to 2022. This is the third of a series of U turns on nuclear policy in the last few years. The issue has fairly swung with the political wind. Chancellor Gerhard Schröder’s Social Democratic-Green administration decided to phase out nuclear power by around 2020. This was abandoned by the current government, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s center-right Christian Democratic Union coalition government who only last year announced a plan to extend the lives of the 17 nuclear plants. This action fairly mirrors what happened in the 1980s after Chernobyl when the SDP government passed a resolution in 1986 to phase out Nuclear power within 10 years. Since the Fukishima incident the oldest 8 reactors that represent 6.4% of Germany’s generating capacity have been shut down and are now not to be re-started.

At the beginning of this year nuclear accounted for around 25% of electricity generated in Germany, coal and brown coal 55%, gas 12%, renewables 8% of which around half is Hydro Electric,the balance wind and photovoltaic that have heavily subsidised feed in tariffs. The expectation is that by 2020 the renewables will be up at 20% however this barely replaces the loss of nuclear. It should also be noted that when you look at installed capacity rather than generated power renewables currently represent 14% producing only 8% of electricity and nuclear represents 20.6% of installed capacity but produces 25% of generated electricity. This discrepancy is the result of a focus on wind and photovoltaic generation neither of which are suited to Germany’s climate and continental location.

The upshot of this is that Germany are highly unlikely to meet their commitments for reducing carbon emissions. The big question here is what is more important CO2 generation or perceived risks of nuclear power? The answer in Germany and likely in the rest of Europe is whichever is the politically expedient issue.

Kevan Shaw 31 May 2011